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The current combination of degraded conventional economic yardsticks and the enhanced importance of storytelling in a low-r* world opens the possibility that people confuse dreams with unbiased forecasts.
EUROPEAN UNION, 30 October 2020 V-Recovery: Forecast or Utopian Dream?
What we’re thinking about markets
By March 2020 it had become clear that a vast wave of excess capital would be diverted into speculative assets including stocks.  Where is it headed and how might markets react?
STOCK MARKETS, 12 January 2021 2021: What’s up ahead?
The Federal Reserve has chosen the lesser of two evils: a carefully judged shift towards NGDP-targeting as opposed to possibly entrenched deflation. Will stock investors respond? Will households and businesses keep believing?
Minds and Markets - New Series
Why Minds and Markets?

Demystifying the relationship between

psychology and finance
So important do we see the role of human psychology in forecasting asset prices today, since January 2021 Eriswell is running a newsletter with the single goal of helping you better understand the relationship between psychology and finance. Experts are mostly abominable financial forecasters, bad at short-term forecasting, bad at long-term forecasting, bad at forecasting stock prices. Yet investors continue to rely on the experts, even when their track records suggest otherwise.
Western central banks’ ‘worst case’ scenario is spiralling inflation, unexpected and severe rate hikes, and deep recessions. The trouble is that the difference between their ‘base case’ and ‘worst case’ scenarios is largely irrelevant today. The new Robinhood retail stock jockeys see anything they want to see. In fact, all of us are blindsided by beliefs, including hedge fund managers. What is to be done? This Christmas edition of our financial psychology series uses the science of honeybee behaviour as a framework to explain why trust in the financial services industry is at an all-time low.
24 December 2020, Minds & Markets Issue #2 Are you smarter than a Honeybee?
First in this series, we explore the possibilities afforded by two-level theories to resharpen conventional econometric and stock valuation models which have been bent and blunted by post-2008 zero interest rate dynamics.
14 December 2020, Minds & Markets Issue #1 Who said “never the twain shall meet”?
Investors are increasingly nervous of rising asset prices but not entirely sure why, other than a vague sense of dread and an uncanny feeling of déjà vu. We investigate…. Focus on what is actually driving markets, not what should drive them in a utopian world. And remember, every bubble contains the seeds of truth and of future opportunities.
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