28 October 2021, Mark Page
Latest Insights
Markets, Economies and Asset Prices
Until we change incentives long the entire ‘investment-production-consumption’ chain, we cannot expect to deliver anything close to the impact needed to combat climate change and other social problems
23 September 2021, Mark Page
3 September 2021, Mark Page
Nobody wants their portfolio to be tossed around like an autumn leaf, driven by forces they don’t understand, with destination goodness knows where. This series will focus on the new ideas which helped us navigate some of the biggest market moves over the past 10-years.
9 July 2021, Mark Page
With current high valuations, care should be exercised when listening to those rocking up late to the equity party, just as the band is packing up to go home.
Half the world is predicting that US Treasury bond yields will rise sharply. A bystander might feel foolish for not seeing this. With bond yields falling sharply, it is no longer clear who the fools really are.
By March 2020 it had become clear that a vast wave of excess capital would be diverted into speculative assets including stocks.  Where is it headed and how might markets react? The current combination of degraded conventional economic yardsticks and the enhanced importance of storytelling in a low-r* world opens the possibility that people confuse dreams with unbiased forecasts. The Federal Reserve has chosen the lesser of two evils: a carefully judged shift towards NGDP-targeting as opposed to possibly entrenched deflation. Will stock investors respond? Will households and businesses keep believing? Western central banks’ ‘worst case’ scenario is spiralling inflation, unexpected and severe rate hikes, and deep recessions. The trouble is that the difference between their ‘base case’ and ‘worst case’ scenarios is largely irrelevant today.
12 January 2021, Mark Page
30 October 2020, Mark Page
18 September 2020, Mark Page
10 January 2020, Andrea Badelt
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11 January 2022, Mark Page
Can ESG investors help heal the world’s social and climate ills? Can they even identify companies moving towards a distant and desirable equilibrium? And do you trust them?
Eriswell  Capital Management